Jiaozhou Laojiao (000568): National cellar continues to grow rapidly and is optimistic about medium and long-term growth potential

The event company released the 2019 interim report to achieve a total operating income of 80 in the first half of the year.

13 ppm, an increase of 24 in ten years.

8%, net profit attributable to mother 27.

500,000 yuan, an increase of 39 in ten years.

8%, net profit after deduction is 27.

2.8 billion, an annual increase of 38.

53%; of which, the operating income in the second quarter was 38.

南京桑拿网440,000 yuan, an increase of 26 in ten years.

0%, achieving net profit of return to mother 12.

350,000 yuan, an increase of 36 in ten years.


A brief comment on the continued high growth of revenue in the second quarter, the state reserve, cellar age, and special song continued high-growth companies achieved revenue of 80 in the first half.

13 ppm, an increase of 24 in ten years.

8%, taking into account changes in advance receipts, then (income + advance receipts changes) is about 78.

10,000 yuan, an increase of 40 in ten years.

4%, good growth.

The high increase in revenue came from the rise in volume and price of products such as the state reserve, cellar age, and special songs.

In terms of product level, high-end liquor (Guojiao 1573) achieved revenue of 43 in the first half of the year.

1.3 billion, an annual increase of 30.

47%, of which the average price contribution is expected to be about 10%, the sales growth contribution will be about 20%, and the proportion of premium alcoholic beverages will reach 53.

8% further increase, the gross profit margin temporarily increased by 0.

53pct to 91.


The preliminary national cellar 1573 is expected to achieve the expected sales.

Mid-range alcoholic beverages achieved revenue of 22.

23 ppm, an increase of 35 in ten years.

At 14%, a grassroots survey shows that the growth rate of special song is estimated to be more than 40%, and the growth rate of cellar age is more than 10%. At the same time, the gross profit margin of mid-range wine is increased by 5 as the price of special song increases.

A 03% boost was noticeable; low-end liquor achieved revenue13.

84 ‰, increasing by 0 every year.

68% was basically the same as the previous year, with a gross profit margin of 38.

85% is 6 higher than the previous year.

58 points.

The gross profit margin Q2 accelerated, the increase in sales expenses came from the increase in terminals / consumers, and the passive decline in management expense rates. Driven by the structural improvement, the company’s gross profit margin Q2 accelerated and increased by 5 in the second quarter.

1 point to 80.

3%, driving the company’s Q2 earnings to continue to grow rapidly.

In terms of expense ratio, the sales expense ratio increased by 0 in the first half of the year.

6 points to 19.

2%, where Q1 / Q2 are -1 respectively.3pct / + 2.

7pct, market expenses increased and settlement rebates increased in the second quarter, and the upward rate of fees was in line with expectations; the management expense rate decreased by 1 in the first half of the year.

3 points to 4.

3%, where Q1 / Q2 are -0 respectively.

5pct / -2.


The company’s net profit margin increased by 3.

7 points to 34.

3%, with Q1 / Q2 increasing by 4 respectively.

9pct / 2.


The cash flow is healthy and the report quality is high.

From a cash point of view, Q2 sells goods for cash 39.

94 ppm, an increase of 54 in ten years.

2%, the recovery is good; the operating cash flow is relatively stable, the operating net cash flow has increased; from the perspective of advance receipts, the company’s advance receipts at the end of June13.

9.2 billion, a slight increase from the previous month and maintained at a normal level as a whole.

Optimistic about the steady growth of high-end liquor, the company continues to benefit from the high-end volume and price rise, and the brand power has continued to deliver since 2019. With the tight supply and demand of Moutai, the high-end liquor has shown a new round of upward market as a whole, and the trend of rising volume and price has become clearer.

With the approval price rising steadily under the supply and demand and reasonable expansion of the enterprise, and the sales volume steadily expanding under the trend of industry consumption upgrade, the company will continue to benefit from the increase in volume and price of high-end liquor.

The company’s high-end product Guojiao 1573 has sufficient brand power and consumer awareness, and mid-range also has cellphone age, special song and other fist products to expand the scale of strength, the company will adopt a strategy in the next two years, is expected to welcome scale, rapid growth in profits.

Profit forecast and investment recommendations for companies expected in 2019?
In 2021, the income will be 160.

72, 193.

81, 229.

160,000 yuan, an increase of 23 in ten years.

1%, 20.

6%, 18.

2%, the expected net profit attributable to the mother is 47.

04, 57.

21, 68.

73 ppm, an increase of 35 in ten years.

0%, 21.

6%, 20.

1%, corresponding to a basic EPS of 3.

21, 3.

91, 4.

69 yuan, the latest sustainable (8.

28) 88.

85 yuan corresponding to 2019?
The dynamic PE in 2021 is 27.

7, 22.
7, 18.

9 times.
Raise the target price to 105 yuan and maintain the “Buy” rating.

Risks remind that national development is less than expected; Guojiao 1573, special song sales are lower than expected; food safety risks