Gemdale Group (600383): Carrying over and accelerating semi-annual results far exceeds expectations
Event Gemdale Group announced the 2019 semi-annual results pre-announcement announcement: It is expected that the net profit attributable to mothers in the first half of 2019 will increase by about 12 compared with the same period last year.3.7 billion, an annual increase of 52%. Opinion settlement accelerated, and interim results exceeded expectations.It is expected that the net profit attributable to mothers will reach 36 in the first half of 2019.USD 3.2 billion, an increase of 52% per year; the interim results exceeded expectations, mainly due to the increase in the company’s settlement scale, and at the same time considering the real estate company’s sales to settlement has a period of stay of about 2 years, so the settlement projects in the first half of 2019 are mainly 2016-2017Sales of projects have guaranteed profitability, and the level of gross profit margin is still expected.In addition, although Gemdale Group’s investment real estate is accounted for at fair value, it has been evaluated at the end of consecutive years and this interim result has not been affected by changes in fair value gains and losses (the 2018H1 base period has also not been affected). Sales of high-quality targets in first- and second-tier cities show advantages.In June 2019, the company achieved a contracted area of 107.90,000 square meters, an increase of 23 in ten years.12%; Achieved signing amount of 209.20,000 yuan, an annual increase of 43.59%; the unit price of 19,388 yuan / square meter, an increase of 17%.Against the background of mediocre transaction performance in third- and fourth-tier cities, the company focused on the layout of core cities in the first and second tiers with strong sales strength.From the accumulated data, the company achieved a total contracted area of 428 in the first half of 2019.100,000 square meters, an increase of 13 in ten years.97%; the contract amount is 855.70,000 yuan, an annual increase of 35.68%; 45% of the expected sales target of 190 billion yuan has been achieved. It is expected that the company will be able to complete this sales target with a high probability through the acceleration of the push of the plate in the second half of the year. Investment is steady, and average floor prices remain low.In June, the company acquired 12 projects in Changchun, Dalian, Ezhou, Changsha, Taizhou, Shaoxing, Jinan, and Zhenjiang. The cost of land acquisition was 8 billion yuan, a decrease of 58%; the construction area of new projects was 1.63 million square meters, a decrease of 17%.The monthly land acquisition amount is only 38% of the sales amount; the average floor price is only 4923 yuan / square meter, accounting for 25% of the average sales price, which effectively protects the future gross profit level.The company’s accumulated land acquisition cost in the first half of the year was 39.7 billion US dollars, a year-on-year decrease of 17%; the construction area of newly added projects was 5.52 million square meters, an annual increase of 181%, and the conversion land acquisition accounted for 46% of the sales amount; the company increased its investment in second-tier cities in the first half of the year.In terms of resource layout, the cost of land acquisition in the first, second, and third lines accounted for 6%, 76%, and 18%, respectively, pushing the average floor price to shift. Investment suggestion: Gemdale Corporation has ample land reserves and high sales growth. The two wings of “business + finance” are icing on the cake, and its future performance will steadily increase. The company adheres to the “first-line + core second-tier” urban layout.The company’s EPS 杭州桑拿 is expected to be 2 in 2019-2021.26, 2.80, 3.34 yuan, the corresponding PE is 5.07, 4.10, 3.44 times, maintain “Buy” rating. Risk reminders: industry sales fluctuations; policy adjustments leading to operational risks (shed reform, restructuring, budget policies, etc.); changes in the financing environment (mortgages, development loans, interest rate adjustments, etc.); corporate operational risks (personnel changes, construction, land acquisition, etc.)The risk of exchange rate fluctuations; the monetization of the shed reform is not up to expectations.