36% reconstruction plan update continues to be optimistic about the growth value 杭州桑拿 of the Three Gorges Power Grid
Three Gorges Water Conservancy (600116) Quarterly Comment: Q1 performance twice + 1.
36% reconstruction plan update continues to be optimistic about the growth value of the Three Gorges Power Grid
First quarter report: Net profit of return to mother for ten years +1.
36% of the companies released the first quarter report, which reported that the net profit attributable to owners of the parent company was 2743.
30,000 yuan, an increase of 1 over the same period last year.
36%; operating income is 2.
680,000 yuan, an increase of 1 over the same period last year.
98%; basic profit return is 0.
028 yuan, an increase of 3 over the same period last year.
As of March 31, 2019, the hydropower stations of the company’s subsidiaries and holding companies have gradually completed 0 power generation.
664.5 billion kWh, an increase of 52 per year.
27%; In addition to the impact of incoming water fluctuations, Jinpen Hydro Power Generation, the new Long Beach Hydropower Station were put into operation in May 2018, and Zhenquan Generator did not generate electricity due to maintenance in the first quarter of 2018, which are the reasons for power fluctuations.
Other income increased by 315% compared with the same period of the previous year, basically: the deferred income of the rural power grid repayment funds was converted into other income based on the depreciation expenses and interest expenses incurred during the current period of the rural power grid transformation and upgrading.
The change in other income is also the initial decrease of the company’s non-attribution net profit year by year.
According to the Chongqing Municipal Price Bureau, starting from April 1, 2019, the replacement tax rate for power grid companies will be adjusted from 16% to 13%. The free space for electricity prices will be used to reduce the general industrial and commercial electricity prices. Chongqing’s “industrial and commercial and other”The sales price of electricity and transmission and distribution prices for single-level electricity in the middle-tier system will decrease by 1 per kWh.
According to company estimates, it is expected that this electricity price adjustment will have no impact on 2019 net profit.
(1) United Energy’s integration of Chongqing local power grid enterprises; (2) Operating data of United Energy’s main business; (3) Financial statements of United Energy Audit; (4) Development of Changxing Power’s main business; (5)) The competition pattern and major contradictions faced by Changxing Power’s main business; (6) Specific considerations for the injection of Changxing Power into this reorganization; (7) Analysis of the reasons for the decline in the long-term performance of the report.
Earnings forecast: For the time being, we do not consider the impact of asset reorganization. We expect the company’s net profit attributable to the parent to be 2 in 2019-2021.
Maintain the “overweight” rating.
Pro forma profit forecast: Based on the objective and prudent principle, due to the fact that the “Three Gorges Group’s incremental hydropower into Chongqing substitutes the current outsourced funds of the company” has not yet been implemented, ignoring this factor, the pro forma profit forecast for 2020 is $ 1.1 billion.
If the above factors are taken into account, under the assumption of “5 billion kilowatt-hours, the electricity price spread is 7 cents”, the profit after tax can be increased by US $ 300 million, and the pro forma profit forecast in 2020 is US $ 1.4 billion.
Assume to follow 1.
1xPB acquisition with a target price of 62.
800 million, considering the issue price of 7.
42 yuan, an increase of 8.
4.6 billion shares, with a pro forma market value of 16.3 billion.
The current discount of the company caused by short-term uncertainties such as the entry of Three Gorges Power into Chongqing, and the future increase of the Liangjiang New District and the company’s planned nationwide long-term growth value were underestimated by the market before the site was rolled out.
We continue to be optimistic about the efforts of the Three Gorges Group to establish a “Three Gorges Power Grid” based in Chongqing and move towards a national development path. The company is expected to grow into a nationwide leader in the distribution and distribution of electricity.
Risk warning: the progress of the update is less than expected, the price of electricity sales is reduced, and the progress of the Three Gorges Power into Chongqing is less than expected